With the end of 2017 rapidly approaching, along with winter’s arrival, it’s important to take a step back and see what’s in store for us the upcoming year. We believe that this Winter and Spring has a roughly 40% chance of being more tornadic than normal. Especially for portions of Northern Texas during the mid to late Winter months.
Let’s focus on our home state of Kentucky. Because of a prevalent La Nina, current similarities to years past, and the current long-range model runs, we believe that Kentucky is going to see a very slightly above average tornado count for 2018. 40% chance above average for some parts, 36% for others, and 32% for most of eastern KY. We believe there will likely be no tornado activity during December for this area, however there may be 1 isolated tornado in January, although unlikely. A couple tornadoes will be possible in late February, with the probability increasing March through late spring. Above average Springtime tornado activity is anticipated for Kentucky, with most occurring in April. May will likely hold the second most tornadoes of the year, shortly followed by June.
2018 Above Average Tornado PredictionThe following Counties are likely to experience a majority of the tornadic activity for 2018. Please keep in mind, this is merely a personal prediction, and tornadoes can and will form in all parts of the state! If they only form in these counties this year, I clearly need a promotion.
Ballard, Breckinridge, Calloway, Christian, Daviess, Grant, Grayson, Hardin, Henderson, Hopkins, Jefferson, Laurel, Lyon, Menifee, Muhlenberg, Scott, Shelby, Spencer, Trigg, Trimble, Union, Warren, Washington
It is a general consensus among news outlets and many weather predictors, that Kentucky will see somewhere around 2 to 3 winter storms this year. The majority of the snowfall will be light this year, with frigid temperatures. I predict that ice storms will likely be the biggest threat to Kentucky this Winter. Total accumulation for Lexington is guessed to be around:
December: 3-7 Inches
January: 3-8 Inches
February: 1-2 Inches
As always, these predictions are in no way 100% accurate, but are done to the best of my ability. Always be prepared for all types of weather emergencies.